Dow Should Moderate

I think the DJIA will likely moderate at some point today from the 100+ gain this morning. I'd look for it to eventually pullback to at least give up about 50 points. The weak jobs report was just another report that was already largely discounted. However, it's enough to give traders pause about rallying straight out. Moderate gains just seem more appropriate than an outright bull rally.

I still think the market breaks to new lows sooner or later. Continued bad news will prick away at market conditions. The fed/treasury has run out of tools and lost credibility (as shown by decline after decline). Lastly, even though a lot has been priced in, it seems like analysts and investors are too optimistic about the time it'll take to recover and the magnitude of the recovery. I expect a longer recession based on declining demographic trends and poor credit conditions. At best we get sub-par returns from here--not exactly an environment to be all-in long in.