Monday, September 29, 2008

The Bear is Here to Stay

The S&P's down another 4%. Plan or no plan, the market is taking the negative view. I continue to question the notion that the market has priced in all of the bad news. As I have stated in an earlier post, the market is only currently reflecting an "average" bear market. However, we seem like we're in anything but an average bear market with demographic forces and credit conditions creating significant headwinds for the economy. This is most certainly going to lead to lower levels on the broad indices in the coming weeks/months.

A few short ideas: YHOO's looking bad. After rejecting MSFT's offer, it has suffered tremendously and the stock has acted terribly. Advertising revenues will probably fall for them given the weak economic conditions. I'd short FL too. It looks like it's rallied too much given retail's condition. Oil's broken down too and is likely to head lower for a bit as worries shift from inflation to deflation.

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