Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Waiting for a Real Signal

Brett Steenbarger points to a divergence in the S&P and New Highs/Lows. I think Dr. Steenbarger's post supports my intermediate term bullish outlook.

It seems like the bears are running out of ammo for the time being. If they couldn't kill the market on GE, what is going to discourage buyers from coming back in? Up until Bear Stearns, it was all too easy for bears to scare the hell out of people. We went down on anything and everything. It's just not that way anymore. That leads me to believe that there has been a bit of a regime change here.

However, I still wouldn't make any significant bets until some clarity arises from the current situation. Although, the bulls are pushing the market higher right now, resistance that has stopped 3 advances flat in their tracks is still not too far overhead. Once that gives way and is confirmed by rising new highs and broad participation (including the financials), then you can count me more bullish. Until then though, I'm skeptical and keeping a short term focus.

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