Thursday, August 23, 2007

Not Getting a Strong Read but Bias is Upward

It's pretty hard to play this market right now. You can't hold stocks overnight if you're a short term trader because you have no idea what the market will be in the morning and the overall direction is hard to read if you have a more intermediate term view because you have pretty strong arguments from the bears while the fed acts in an opposing fashion. It seems like a situation where you should play tight ie. don't make big bets and have clear boundaries for trades. We aren't in any sort of strong trend upwards. We aren't in any sort of strong trend down. Just keep it small, keep it safe, keep it defined.

That said, if you are to venture into the market, I think that the very short term bias is a small downside look that will lead to more upside. So with that in mind, I would definately be taking more long positions here than short. I don't see anything eout there particularly eye catching except some very short trades and a few closed end fund bargains. I'm currently eying the EDD, an emerging markets closed end bond fund that got hammered and seems to be a good deal now. It was in a post on thestreet.com yesterday so if you want more info it's pretty easy to find.

That's all for now.

CM

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