Tuesday, August 28, 2007
NSTK Needs to Stay Above 200 sma
I wrote about NSTK a week or so ago. The stock has since come down to where I said to buy it. It has sold off after a sharp break over its 200 sma to come back down and rest on it. The good news is that it has bounced off. The bad news is that the market is weak bringing just about everything down with it. Could NSTK stay above its 200 sma and be a great buy here? Yes, i think it can. Could it turn out that I am wrong? Absolutely. But the proximity of the 200 sma to the current stock price gives a clear, close level that will tell us we're wrong, thus making the trade low risk. As far as upside, the chart looks well positioned. The stock broke up strongly once in July then consolidated that gain. It then broke up once again over the 200 sma. This current move downward seems like it is just another dose of consolidation, not a break down. I would expect another solid move higher with a gain of at least 10 percent. That is why I want you in this stock and in it now.
UNH Provides Great Entry On Short Side
The UNH short trade I mentioned yesterday provided an excellent entry opportunity this morning when the stock moved up to 49.60. The stock now looks like it is headed towards 48 where I would cover.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Short UNH and NYX
The markets look mild today with a bit of a dip but it seems pretty controlled and probably will not get out of hand. I think things are looking weak for the short term right here with many leading stocks running out of steam and looking to rest along with all the vacationers on Wall Street.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7WqH3-vN1aaikMRTg0GRAQY9-OjRJRLsOCdbovYb9QmT7cpiNPCGjiZ1XsxXbxhPmUi9s13WmCV-zsVdwtmqSVEkSSGq4aJndwFAdqbmU-iBgfhpXPpa9mCR_-Hdgwg55vyImQ0sSjXEL/s320/sc-46.png)
NYX has been running up against its 50 sma which has proved to be tough resistance for this stock. It looks weak here as it cannot get over 50 on the relative strength index. I think the stock is a good bet here, stop on a break above the 50 sma.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbaMeqn588IA9RWgFp8RjIt8jx7b543HFNjoPsZPauWOk45pJfrw7oqSLN-5Q8sKL6_5_8XJ5XmM5JOWQtiDjMzHKoTz6m6IOOPWFBEdIBiI0RtjuMLh6xcVqxaRtB-zDmLh6YX_Uy7srd/s320/sc-45.png)
UNH is another short. Granted, it is a very short term trade, but I don't think times right now is the best time to be going all in. As you can see today's price action is a repeat of action last week. It comes down to 48 first pops to 49. Reaches higher to near the 50 sma but closes lower. Then it reaches 48 once again. I'd enter in right here at 49.60 or higher and stop out above today's high.
CM
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7WqH3-vN1aaikMRTg0GRAQY9-OjRJRLsOCdbovYb9QmT7cpiNPCGjiZ1XsxXbxhPmUi9s13WmCV-zsVdwtmqSVEkSSGq4aJndwFAdqbmU-iBgfhpXPpa9mCR_-Hdgwg55vyImQ0sSjXEL/s320/sc-46.png)
NYX has been running up against its 50 sma which has proved to be tough resistance for this stock. It looks weak here as it cannot get over 50 on the relative strength index. I think the stock is a good bet here, stop on a break above the 50 sma.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbaMeqn588IA9RWgFp8RjIt8jx7b543HFNjoPsZPauWOk45pJfrw7oqSLN-5Q8sKL6_5_8XJ5XmM5JOWQtiDjMzHKoTz6m6IOOPWFBEdIBiI0RtjuMLh6xcVqxaRtB-zDmLh6YX_Uy7srd/s320/sc-45.png)
UNH is another short. Granted, it is a very short term trade, but I don't think times right now is the best time to be going all in. As you can see today's price action is a repeat of action last week. It comes down to 48 first pops to 49. Reaches higher to near the 50 sma but closes lower. Then it reaches 48 once again. I'd enter in right here at 49.60 or higher and stop out above today's high.
CM
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Not Getting a Strong Read but Bias is Upward
It's pretty hard to play this market right now. You can't hold stocks overnight if you're a short term trader because you have no idea what the market will be in the morning and the overall direction is hard to read if you have a more intermediate term view because you have pretty strong arguments from the bears while the fed acts in an opposing fashion. It seems like a situation where you should play tight ie. don't make big bets and have clear boundaries for trades. We aren't in any sort of strong trend upwards. We aren't in any sort of strong trend down. Just keep it small, keep it safe, keep it defined.
That said, if you are to venture into the market, I think that the very short term bias is a small downside look that will lead to more upside. So with that in mind, I would definately be taking more long positions here than short. I don't see anything eout there particularly eye catching except some very short trades and a few closed end fund bargains. I'm currently eying the EDD, an emerging markets closed end bond fund that got hammered and seems to be a good deal now. It was in a post on thestreet.com yesterday so if you want more info it's pretty easy to find.
That's all for now.
CM
That said, if you are to venture into the market, I think that the very short term bias is a small downside look that will lead to more upside. So with that in mind, I would definately be taking more long positions here than short. I don't see anything eout there particularly eye catching except some very short trades and a few closed end fund bargains. I'm currently eying the EDD, an emerging markets closed end bond fund that got hammered and seems to be a good deal now. It was in a post on thestreet.com yesterday so if you want more info it's pretty easy to find.
That's all for now.
CM
Friday, August 17, 2007
The Fed Moves, Expecting Massive Short Squeeze
The Federal Reserve cuts.
We'll get a huge, huge rally today and problably some more tomorrow and the next day as all those shorts cover and everybody enjoys this moment of bliss (well, for the longs that is).
We'll get a huge, huge rally today and problably some more tomorrow and the next day as all those shorts cover and everybody enjoys this moment of bliss (well, for the longs that is).
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
SLW, NSTK, CELG
The broad market has been drifting downward as of late. Action has been volatile although it is rather quiet today (we'll see later in the day about that), allowing some huge intraday ranges to appear on charts. I've seen plenty of patterns where the bar for the day spans from one bollinger to the next. This type of action offers good day trading opportunities. However, looking at the market from a bit more of a position trader perspective there are a few names that have been holding up nicely during this dip and should be bought soon.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfkv1fJg6nLrVdrqSdF73I4zSKqpOLc72qvyAioFJx9TpAQwE0XuCqSjDgbdHymG9WKTtUZ1kaGanHIag5UDZdRrgQs3qYbEuTLBsovl7o_OC-QjQFF4vLSvZb3blv8WAjUbnXQoJ-3R1L/s320/SLW.png)
The first of which is SLW (Silver Wheaton). Looking back on a 2 year day chart you can see how the stock had struggled many times to break out from 12 bucks. Well in June and July the stock successfully made the break, moving up as high as 15 dollars. The stock has pulled back recently and is in consolidation mode. I am looking for this stock to come back to do a test or a near retest of the breakout point. That means I'd be buying around 12.25 looking for a strong bounce around the 12-12.25 level. If the stock gets below say around 11.95 depending on your level of tolerance and stop placement, I'd stop out. I think this stock presents a good trade here with limited risk and good clarity.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4__G7QkkzlrvuKApRqQ4gmidA4JXmU6PWiFtlk5NZWZbCWcRgeDYBoQseAXshOAXnP57m8w7VDalYxF2koscTrHUSfRWmA04jp-h81sVlUk7L58ezLxfZKTK5VyNyte6suBne63xTAaO6/s320/NSTK.png)
The second stock is Cramer Favorite NSTK. Looking at the chart, you can see that after consolidating below the 200 sma, the stock finally broke sharply through and above the moving average. Now, however it is coming back down. I think a smart play would be to watch for a retest of the 200 sma and buy this name. A move below the 200 sma proves this stock thinks otherwise and the trade is busted.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVNLKqnF-_Oh9i3KHG_-BztpBF46NfFSR_6EscFh4wLNXD2VYLA5-3apE1NrHFyVcJriCLNfkfQz9xZ6kLKdUY5wlhstSmaAXMnDYihyFsuA4aAOaTGekpGmgl5ui1NR9G1LV5gy5EOSau/s320/CELG.png)
Lastly, I just wanted to reiterate that CELG, one of the picks on this blog, has been holding up nicely throughout this decline. It bounced, as I predicted, off of its 200 sma and ran up a little. It would've been prudent to sell a little after its first four days of straight up in the face of the market decline. Now, it is coming in a little, although it still is looking relatively strong when compared to the broad market. It's currently hanging above its 50 sma still higher than where we recommended it recently. Right here I would start to look to buy once again. The market is selling off once again today and you just have to think that a nice bounce will be around soon.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfkv1fJg6nLrVdrqSdF73I4zSKqpOLc72qvyAioFJx9TpAQwE0XuCqSjDgbdHymG9WKTtUZ1kaGanHIag5UDZdRrgQs3qYbEuTLBsovl7o_OC-QjQFF4vLSvZb3blv8WAjUbnXQoJ-3R1L/s320/SLW.png)
The first of which is SLW (Silver Wheaton). Looking back on a 2 year day chart you can see how the stock had struggled many times to break out from 12 bucks. Well in June and July the stock successfully made the break, moving up as high as 15 dollars. The stock has pulled back recently and is in consolidation mode. I am looking for this stock to come back to do a test or a near retest of the breakout point. That means I'd be buying around 12.25 looking for a strong bounce around the 12-12.25 level. If the stock gets below say around 11.95 depending on your level of tolerance and stop placement, I'd stop out. I think this stock presents a good trade here with limited risk and good clarity.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4__G7QkkzlrvuKApRqQ4gmidA4JXmU6PWiFtlk5NZWZbCWcRgeDYBoQseAXshOAXnP57m8w7VDalYxF2koscTrHUSfRWmA04jp-h81sVlUk7L58ezLxfZKTK5VyNyte6suBne63xTAaO6/s320/NSTK.png)
The second stock is Cramer Favorite NSTK. Looking at the chart, you can see that after consolidating below the 200 sma, the stock finally broke sharply through and above the moving average. Now, however it is coming back down. I think a smart play would be to watch for a retest of the 200 sma and buy this name. A move below the 200 sma proves this stock thinks otherwise and the trade is busted.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVNLKqnF-_Oh9i3KHG_-BztpBF46NfFSR_6EscFh4wLNXD2VYLA5-3apE1NrHFyVcJriCLNfkfQz9xZ6kLKdUY5wlhstSmaAXMnDYihyFsuA4aAOaTGekpGmgl5ui1NR9G1LV5gy5EOSau/s320/CELG.png)
Lastly, I just wanted to reiterate that CELG, one of the picks on this blog, has been holding up nicely throughout this decline. It bounced, as I predicted, off of its 200 sma and ran up a little. It would've been prudent to sell a little after its first four days of straight up in the face of the market decline. Now, it is coming in a little, although it still is looking relatively strong when compared to the broad market. It's currently hanging above its 50 sma still higher than where we recommended it recently. Right here I would start to look to buy once again. The market is selling off once again today and you just have to think that a nice bounce will be around soon.
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
NMX and NYX in Merger Talks, SIRF is Down
NMX and NYX are in reported merger talks and the stock is popping on the action. I have repeatedly said on this blog to buy NMX down at its lows and it has continually proven to be a good buy. I'd sell a little bit on this move for a quick profit considering the volatile market we're in. Please, however, do not sell the entire lot as it does have potential to move higher from here.
It is (was yesterday) time (today) to take profits in the short position I recommended in SIRF. The stock has come down a full buck from where I recommended it to what looks like support.
That's all for now. I'll be back in a bit.
CM
It is (was yesterday) time (today) to take profits in the short position I recommended in SIRF. The stock has come down a full buck from where I recommended it to what looks like support.
That's all for now. I'll be back in a bit.
CM
Thursday, August 2, 2007
NMX Sits Still, SIRF's Going Lower, Sell SFLY
It has been a while once again and for that I apologize. But, I am back up and running for the time being in between tests and studying. The broad market has been getting punished lately due to subprime concerns, rumors, and the plain fact that a lot of people are scared stiff of buying. It makes sense in a lot of sectors. Housing and financials seem pitiful all around. But there is no need to touch these stocks. There are plenty of other longs out there right now with great chart patterns. In addition, there are some good shorts out there as well to protect you from further falls in the market.
So, what should your strategy be in a market like this? Well, don't get stupid. Like I've heard many say before, there is no need to be a hero and buy up weak stocks. Know your plan of action. Know what is working (tech and various others) and what isn't (ANYTHING financial or housing related). Second of all, stick to the game plan which means stay with stocks that have clear entries, so that you'll know quickly if you're wrong if they move against you or right if they move with you. Lastly, use the volatility to your advantage. There are tons of ranges (wider than usual) out there in many stocks, letting you trade clear definable patterns profitably.
So without further adeiu I have a few charts to post up that I'm looking at that'll I share with you. Here they are...
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBSud_CVVTU4JJJ926uoM058us7emYBaMqPoGMnkKoiT-u7FNUOevs608zfA66vWABQUhuPClOqhbcvsWPpQPfcnQJqpnHzr2gc-LWhxgV0YAEiMZcMbxHkMC_TzGb-03o8jcZA6yN_Abv/s320/sc-39.png)
NMX is sitting still around the 124 price level. I would hardly say that is treading water though. I think by looking at the chart that there will be a quick little dip down to the 118.50 area where it has nice support and has bounced off previously. It is clearly a buy there as I've outlined before. The range it has been trading in is undeniable and profitable. It also is a takeover target to boot making this stock a buy.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjI0leBHdroe-IXpf-saBlGQ_RwQEVjCLiCL2GRG5V9x0EZl-_LxKMyfu471J5r8aV6tdL_8dZSbD6aeNUUPIBCGidunTIky-2x3-oBCDGDsjfkJnhYrW6M__BLfh_3Oq3ZC0r3ThYadavr/s320/sc-38.png)
While GRMN bursts to the upside, SIRF a company that manufactures semiconductors for GPS systems has taken a dive here. It reported an inline quarter, which apparently was not enough to keep it afloat. That said, I am recommending a short of this stock around 20.30. This stock is going nowhere but down honestly. It's next support level is at 18.80, a nice gain from here. You can be sure this stock will continue to take it on the chin if the market goes lower (and higher).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq4flailRfgjwwu409uzwq_tXn4i4SgknxQThvf0GPTsxqZxc8jwYV4daRmtQvRDCBhZhH2lJ9_rBVktKl2cB0hqgCN_4gK3QyaYbzw1qxdkm7MSbRu0kk54iyYIHypDF7csRNx10Cj_Vj/s320/sc-42.png)
AUXL is another supurb long. I'm finding it hard to believe that in this market I'm finding such strong stocks and charts. Well anyway, this stock broke out of consolidation above resistance at 17 and is consolidating that move breifly. This consolidation should be brief and for that reason I think the stock is a buy here around 17.25.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3jNug85u6zPFe5d3hQiPGb4b0Hj-zeYtj-mF_g71tltwPPNscOZrJPXQ7BUCUFBcRgaVNSDp957vqbzr-Vdy-rOREQzwJUphphUt0MaPeE-2vxQTRpHVTDqR4LqKtNhfP0e6xILo21V-V/s320/sc-43.png)
SRCL is coming down after a large pop from 44 to 51.50 (all time high). I believe that once it retests its breakout point at 45.75 it will regain its footing and start to move higher once again. Stop for this trade would be below the 50 sma.
So, what should your strategy be in a market like this? Well, don't get stupid. Like I've heard many say before, there is no need to be a hero and buy up weak stocks. Know your plan of action. Know what is working (tech and various others) and what isn't (ANYTHING financial or housing related). Second of all, stick to the game plan which means stay with stocks that have clear entries, so that you'll know quickly if you're wrong if they move against you or right if they move with you. Lastly, use the volatility to your advantage. There are tons of ranges (wider than usual) out there in many stocks, letting you trade clear definable patterns profitably.
So without further adeiu I have a few charts to post up that I'm looking at that'll I share with you. Here they are...
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBSud_CVVTU4JJJ926uoM058us7emYBaMqPoGMnkKoiT-u7FNUOevs608zfA66vWABQUhuPClOqhbcvsWPpQPfcnQJqpnHzr2gc-LWhxgV0YAEiMZcMbxHkMC_TzGb-03o8jcZA6yN_Abv/s320/sc-39.png)
NMX is sitting still around the 124 price level. I would hardly say that is treading water though. I think by looking at the chart that there will be a quick little dip down to the 118.50 area where it has nice support and has bounced off previously. It is clearly a buy there as I've outlined before. The range it has been trading in is undeniable and profitable. It also is a takeover target to boot making this stock a buy.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjI0leBHdroe-IXpf-saBlGQ_RwQEVjCLiCL2GRG5V9x0EZl-_LxKMyfu471J5r8aV6tdL_8dZSbD6aeNUUPIBCGidunTIky-2x3-oBCDGDsjfkJnhYrW6M__BLfh_3Oq3ZC0r3ThYadavr/s320/sc-38.png)
While GRMN bursts to the upside, SIRF a company that manufactures semiconductors for GPS systems has taken a dive here. It reported an inline quarter, which apparently was not enough to keep it afloat. That said, I am recommending a short of this stock around 20.30. This stock is going nowhere but down honestly. It's next support level is at 18.80, a nice gain from here. You can be sure this stock will continue to take it on the chin if the market goes lower (and higher).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq4flailRfgjwwu409uzwq_tXn4i4SgknxQThvf0GPTsxqZxc8jwYV4daRmtQvRDCBhZhH2lJ9_rBVktKl2cB0hqgCN_4gK3QyaYbzw1qxdkm7MSbRu0kk54iyYIHypDF7csRNx10Cj_Vj/s320/sc-42.png)
AUXL is another supurb long. I'm finding it hard to believe that in this market I'm finding such strong stocks and charts. Well anyway, this stock broke out of consolidation above resistance at 17 and is consolidating that move breifly. This consolidation should be brief and for that reason I think the stock is a buy here around 17.25.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3jNug85u6zPFe5d3hQiPGb4b0Hj-zeYtj-mF_g71tltwPPNscOZrJPXQ7BUCUFBcRgaVNSDp957vqbzr-Vdy-rOREQzwJUphphUt0MaPeE-2vxQTRpHVTDqR4LqKtNhfP0e6xILo21V-V/s320/sc-43.png)
SRCL is coming down after a large pop from 44 to 51.50 (all time high). I believe that once it retests its breakout point at 45.75 it will regain its footing and start to move higher once again. Stop for this trade would be below the 50 sma.
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