Friday, November 17, 2006

After a Long Day: What I'm Thinking

Today was definately interesting.

-Nymex debuted. I pocketed a small sum (as much as I could in between classes). Now after taking profits, I'm going to let it come in (it already has a bit). I'm looking to buy around 120.

-SHLD jumped 2 dollars off its open and even more off its 50 sma. Looks like support is holding there.

-The broad market looks "overextended". Looking at the Nasdaq, S&P, and the Dow, trendlines are clearly in tact but it looks like upward movement near term is ready to correct a bit. Price looks to be fading and things are getting overbought. Another source, specifically Steve Smith off RealMoney.com notes another reason I think there will be a correction next week. He said in an article today, "There seems to be a feeling that Monday will bring a post-expiration selloff. The options-related buying pressure contributing to this week's gains will have vanished, and people will be looking to lock in gains as we head into the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week." I'm going to follow that and look to buy some QID Monday in order to catch the downside.

-However while I'm looking to gain from the downside, I'm also paying attention to new oppurtunites that a little downside could present. Here are a few individual names I'm looking at:

INFY --- I had bought this stock after it broke out at 53 and rode it for a few bucks. Now it has come down a little and should continue with the broad market next week. I'm looking for it to test its breakout point at around 53/upper 52's. That support should hold along with the trendline that is now moving into the breakout point. Once I see it down there, I'm looking at buying some for a trade.

SHLD --- Again, short term, the bounce happened today. Its possible that it could still move against the market next week but I'm not betting for it to do so completely. If you haven't taken profits off the bounce, consider it. If not, continue to monitor it and watch the 50 sma.

MO --- After a run today, will it continue? It broke its all time high, closing 1 cent above it on twice normal volume (22 day). It's worth watching and I'm keeping this one near the top of my watch list.

QLD --- This is a double Nasdaq ETF. This is for the Friday after Thanksgiving. Looking to catch a broad market rally that Helene Meisler of thestreet.com says "is almost always an up day."

USG --- looks like its hitting short term resistance now and should be melting away from it. I'm interested in going long in this stock as it pulls back. Forward PE is rediculously low, Buffet buying, Cramer recommending, support seems to be rock solid and the fact that one day things will get better has me believing this will go higher. I'm just waiting for a better entry than right here.

Thats it for me for today. I might put in a post or two over the weekend.

CM

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