Back at it Again Part Deux

Well, its been rather hectic for me, exams have left me little time for anything but cramming. But now I'm back and should be back for good as the semester comes to an end and a pause in the school year ensues.

I haven't been as active in the market lately due to the reasons above but I have been keeping an eye out as always. Recently, software stocks pulled back after an analyst made some comments, that were disputed by many, on ORCL's forthcoming earnings. ORCL got hammered but as a result the rest of the software sector took a rest with it. ADBE's been hit hard (I first noticed its diverging RSI in a previous post) due to concerns that expectations are too optimistic. MSFT came down around a buck to touch its 50 sma and I actually purchased some on a dip this morning. It has been rallying back ever since.

Over the weekend I've going through tons of stocks and charts. However, I will need to filter these down before I get some of them on here. They will be here soon though.

CM

Back at it Again

Well first, I'm back after a few days of intense work on my part. Secondly, the bulls are back this morning showing off their strength and lifting the broad market. After viewing my watch list and seeing complete red on Monday, today i'm seeing only a few among the many greens which have been pushed higher.

Here's a few updates on a couple stocks I've mentioned.

WAG -- bounced off support right around where I'd mentioned previously and is up now about 2.5 % from that spot.

USG -- continues to pull back. However, its move today makes it look like it will not fully pullback to support but take off from higher. I'm going to continue to monitor this stock as it has tremedous upside from here and I don't want to miss the ride.

I've still got a lot to do so thats it for me now. I'll be back soon

CM

Back Away from Breakouts

Seems we are at a bit of a turning point with bulls and bears trying to decide which way the broad market is headed. One thing I know is today's action was big and it hurt. So many outperformers such as Goldman Sachs and The New York Stock Exchange among others were faced with reality and pushed lower. The question now is where we are headed in the near future. Are managers going to take this dip and buy it up or are people going to continue the action today and take profits from the latest run up? One thing I have seen that is very prevalent on many of the charts that would lead me to look at the latter option is the prevalence of failed breakouts. It leads me to think that this market is actually relatively weak at this point and could have further downside from here. For some examples, look at AKAM, PKTR is threatening, and DJ has failed.

Anyway, I'm done for the day. I'll be back on here tomorrow.

CM

Big Picture Overshadows Everything Else

With the major averages way down, there is very little individual names can do. PKTR did a U-Turn this morning after moving up strongly at the start once the strong movement downward started. Many if not almost all other stocks have felt the pain today. What is there to do in a situation where nothing except the collective movement matters? Be careful. Don't panic but don't react to quickly without assessing the situation. We haven't had a down day like this in a good while. There very well could be more to come now that people get this ubrupt change in direction.

I'll have more to say in a bit.

CM

And Down Comes the Hammer

Virtually everything got hit hard this morning as sellers came in and pushed the market downward. All three major averages are in the red and have been torn apart as the DJIA is down 135, the NASDAQ down 44 and the S&P down 15. Trading could get worse tomorrow as those who have profits seek to protect them. This is definately a spot where I'd keep both eyes open.

Two more things: WAG is getting very close to where I'd pull the trigger. It should hit support right around 40. If buyers don't materialize pretty quickly or if that level broke signficantly I'd be out of there in a flash.

USG is coming down again. I'd watch 47.20 for support.

CM

Finding a Few Gems

I ran across these three charts over the weekend. Here's my take on em:

PKTR -- broke out of a bullish triangle last week and is consolidating just around 12 dollars. In its breakout PKTR not only broke through its triangle, it also broke a pretty significant resistance level at 12 dollars. That level had been the point of a three tops that had come within 6 months. Looking at the chart, it looks like PKTR has some upside and could be bought right here.

WAG -- this stock has been getting punished unmercilessly since its top in September. It has fallen over 20% from its high and continues to fall. Right now it is riding its lower Bollinger Band tightly, is oversold and has an OBV which looks to be stabilizing. These characteristics and the fact that WAG has strong support at 40 coming up leads me to believe their will be a strong bounce coming once support is hit. I'd look for the a little above the 40 level to catch WAG and ride it higher.

One other note: A look at an ADBE chart this weekend showed that RSI is diverging from the price movement. ADBE's recent movement showed it gapped up to 42.75. It's previous high had been around 41.90. During this move up to 42.75, the RSI failed to make a new high and actually dropped a bit from first high (41.90) to the next. This divergence may seem small but it definately signals to me that ADBE may be running out of steam right here and should only be monitored and not bought.

Thats it for me tonight. I'll be back on posting tomorrow.

CM

Market Weakens, Sears Stays Strong

After an open that led to a top at 12,350 on the DOW, things are cooling off and coming back down. It looks to be another day where minimal price action happens in the broad market. However, there are a few names that are moving strongly this morning.

SHLD is up strong. Currently it is up 6.25 to 178.60 which is about a 3.5% move. Profits might should be taken at this level or a bit higher for traders.

NYX continues to move upward. It is up 4.60 (4.4%) to 109.12.

BEAS is up .70 (5.29%) to 13.92.

There are many individual names that continue to move strongly despite rather meager broad markets movements. The key is just to find these and stick with them.

I'm going to be looking for a few more names and I'll keep this updated.

CM

Looking at Individual Names, Ignoring the Broad Market

As the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P trudge along, slowly as of late and looking in need of consoidation or a pullback, I continue to see some great oppurtunities in individual stocks.

As I said earlier today, I bought a little INFY as it came down in the early morning. It looks like a winner to me. Others that I'm watching include:

PKTR which is in a bullish triangle that I'm definately considering buying on a breakout or even in anticipation of one.

CECO is consolidating looking to go higher.

UNM is in a steady uptrend right now riding its trendline higher.

All of these look like very good potential trades.

Thats it for now.

CM

Trading a Bit Slow Despite Big News

Today's trading didn't do much for me and it didn't do much for the broad market either as the big 3 indexes closed mixed.

However, despite the minimal movements in the indexes there were some very interesting things going on. Steel stocks rallied big. Phelps Dodge got bought out. LSE rejected the Nasdaq AGAIN. MRVL hit the gas. After observing today's trading and searching through some charts, I added a few stocks to my watch list.

Here they are:

GILD seems to be in an exapanding triangle. Its lows have gotten consistently lower while all highs in the last month and a half have hit resistance and bounced off around 69.90. Right now it would be best to just watch this until breaks resistance or finds support around 66.

ADBE pulled back a little today after its recent run up to 42. There is support at 40 but ADBE has not yet confirmed a trendline in this new leg upward. I plan to observe this closely over the next few days.

I'm sure I'll have more to say about these stocks as the week moves forward but for now thats it.

CM

INFY Under Pressure

After trading up to as high as 56 early morning, INFY has come into some selling pressure. As it pulls back, watch for the breakout point (52.75 ish) to buy.

Other Thoughts:
I'm waiting a bit to see if the market will rise up a little to let me get short via the QID (Ultra Short Nasdaq ETF).

Be back in a bit.

CM

After a Long Day: What I'm Thinking

Today was definately interesting.

-Nymex debuted. I pocketed a small sum (as much as I could in between classes). Now after taking profits, I'm going to let it come in (it already has a bit). I'm looking to buy around 120.

-SHLD jumped 2 dollars off its open and even more off its 50 sma. Looks like support is holding there.

-The broad market looks "overextended". Looking at the Nasdaq, S&P, and the Dow, trendlines are clearly in tact but it looks like upward movement near term is ready to correct a bit. Price looks to be fading and things are getting overbought. Another source, specifically Steve Smith off RealMoney.com notes another reason I think there will be a correction next week. He said in an article today, "There seems to be a feeling that Monday will bring a post-expiration selloff. The options-related buying pressure contributing to this week's gains will have vanished, and people will be looking to lock in gains as we head into the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week." I'm going to follow that and look to buy some QID Monday in order to catch the downside.

-However while I'm looking to gain from the downside, I'm also paying attention to new oppurtunites that a little downside could present. Here are a few individual names I'm looking at:

INFY --- I had bought this stock after it broke out at 53 and rode it for a few bucks. Now it has come down a little and should continue with the broad market next week. I'm looking for it to test its breakout point at around 53/upper 52's. That support should hold along with the trendline that is now moving into the breakout point. Once I see it down there, I'm looking at buying some for a trade.

SHLD --- Again, short term, the bounce happened today. Its possible that it could still move against the market next week but I'm not betting for it to do so completely. If you haven't taken profits off the bounce, consider it. If not, continue to monitor it and watch the 50 sma.

MO --- After a run today, will it continue? It broke its all time high, closing 1 cent above it on twice normal volume (22 day). It's worth watching and I'm keeping this one near the top of my watch list.

QLD --- This is a double Nasdaq ETF. This is for the Friday after Thanksgiving. Looking to catch a broad market rally that Helene Meisler of thestreet.com says "is almost always an up day."

USG --- looks like its hitting short term resistance now and should be melting away from it. I'm interested in going long in this stock as it pulls back. Forward PE is rediculously low, Buffet buying, Cramer recommending, support seems to be rock solid and the fact that one day things will get better has me believing this will go higher. I'm just waiting for a better entry than right here.

Thats it for me for today. I might put in a post or two over the weekend.

CM

Nymex (NMX) -- Up in a Hurry

Nymex burst out of the gates this morning debuting for initial trade at 120 bucks a share. After some volatility where it reached up to 150 and fell back down to around 128, it seems to be consolidating around 138-139 now.

I'm not sure anyone expected this high of price for its debut or even in its near term future. It's just a roll with the punches type thing. Anyway I'm long some shares, closely monitoring them of course as this thing has been volitile.

On a side note, look at the other public exchanges. The ICE is up 7.17 as of now, a 7 percent gain (volume is heavy as well). The NYX is up a buck. Looks like these guys are bucking the downward bias of today's market.

CM

SHLD Broken After Earnings

Traders took down SHLD after earnings today turned out to be a disappointment to many. The numbers in particular that disappointed: US same store sales fell 4.8%, earnings came up short with 83 cents per share and revenue fell to 11.94 billion which was below analysts forcasts.

I however think that SHLD has great potential for a short term bounce and a longer term investment. Looking at the stock technically, SHLD traded lower (around 6%) for the day, broke its uptrend but seemed to gain some support on its 50 sma that it touched. Volume was much heavier than usual with 7,085,286 shares trading hands. However, I do not think this stock will be down for that much longer. This is more of an overreaction by people, the same type thing that happened with HOLX last week. Plus with Cramer's endless promotion machine going full steam as he is in love with Lampert, I really doubt there will be too much more selling. That means, the stock could hold the 50 sma. But if that does not hold then I'd look to buy it around 162ish where a lot of trades took place (volume by price) and where strong support should lay. Around this area, the downward momentum will break, people will realize they're getting a deal and you'll get a bounce. That's the short term play. The main thing is to closely monitor the price action. The bounce could happen quickly.

While SHLD could be traded for a short term bounce, I can also see this stock as more of a long term holding. Although this is not my typical style, like many have said before me, I believe Sears to have the potential to really expand into a full blown Berkshire-esque investment vehicle with famous Eddie Lampert at the helm. Jim Cramer has compared it to investing in a hedge fund with less risk. Jonathan Edwards over at thestreet.com shows that the expansion of Sears under Lampert is already starting. He says, "During the quarter, the company reported income from these swap contracts of $101 million. While that income doesn't reflect the conditions of the underlying retail business, it's still money in the bank that can be used to buy back stock." That sounds good to me.

This seems like its just a beginning for SHLD and while today's numbers might be misinterpreted and overreacted on by the crowds, I believe SHLD has more upside. I'd look to get in for both the long term and short term pretty soon. What you need to do is watch the price action and 50 sma. Also, you could buy in steps. Take in a little now and see if it comes in anymore.


One More Thing:
NYMEX debuts on the NYSE tomorrow. I've heard predictions of this stock reaching 85 by the end of the week and even furthur expansion into the future. I don't doubt that at all. As for the short term, you can bet Cramer will be pumping this thing for weeks just like he has been pushing the NYX itself. You've seen the results of that. I'm gonna see what I can do tomorrow about getting a piece of the pie and the profits. Maybe you should do the same.

Welcome

Welcome to Money in the Bank blog. My hope is that through this blog I'll be able to provide you with some good ideas that I've found in the market that can make both you and me money. Although I'm still learning myself, I am out there everyday with every other investor putting my money to work and believe I have some good ideas to share. However, I realize I do not have a monopoly over information and ideas, so along with regular posts I will provide links to other blogs and sites I think are worthy and that will make you money. I appreciate you looking at my blog, I hope its helpful and I'd appreciate any comments.
CM