Stocks to Watch This Week

If you aren't on vacation, you might want to check out these stocks: SYNA and ONXX. I've got a brief synopsis on all of them below (with charts of course).

SYNA has steadily slid down after topping out back in November. It is now hovering above its 200 sma and is getting support from the average. I would now look to buy the stock right around here as a bounce play. Stop out two percent below the 200.

ONXX simply will not stop. It has been on a tear for a very good while now. I don't think the trend will stop right here. The stock is coming down a bit and looks attractive off its 50 sma. It has bounced off this level before (early Aug, October and mid December). I believe it will do once again. Watch the stock in the coming days/weeks. If it makes down there, I would buy it and stop out two percent below.

Sell Rest of SCMR

SCMR can't seem to get over its 50 sma. I would sell whatever position you have left in the stock right here at 3.92 or better.

Start Shorting HW

You should start shorting HW here. I would use a small position to initiate right around 12.10ish.

Sell HOLX

I wish I could've gotten to this sooner but HOLX is a sell at these levels. Since I recommended it, it has run very strongly from the breakout point. Now, however, it is due for a rest. I'd look for to get out at 70 or higher.

MKL, ALU, URS, VCLK

MKL and URS are feeling the heat. With 50 sma's right over them, they're having trouble moving higher. Look to sell those two names tomorrow if you have not already.

ALU is weak right now and looks like it could fall further. Hold whatever short you have in that stock and look for it to be down in the coming days/week.

VCLK has bounced strongly since my recommendation. I would look to get out of the stock right tomorrow as well right around today's close.

HW Shortable

HW can't seem to overcome its 50 sma. The moving average has consistently provided strong resistance that has continued to propel the stock lower over the last year. The stock is now right at its 50 sma once again and is looking ripe to short. I'd look to short right at the 50 sma (currently 12.84) but I don't think starting a short position right here should be out of the question. The stock looks really weak here and could simply not make it up any higher. Stop out around 13.50.

STX Around 28 is Shortable Again

STX is a nasty stock and it could get nastier. There is clear resistance up around 28/28.50, that I believe is a good place to short this stock again. If this thing finally breaksdown we could easily get downside to around 20, which would be a huge gain. However, if this does not go our way, we get a quick stop out above 29.25ish.

SCMR Resistance

SCMR is right up against resistance as well (50 sma). 3.92/3.93 would be a good place to take some off of this position. I would only take about half off on this position and see if you can ride the rest higher.

Sell SIRF Off the 50 sma

SIRF is trapped between its 200 sma (our buy point) and the 50 sma (resistance). We've now gained a quick 2 points in a very short period of time and I think its a good time to sell. Right now its trading for 25.02. If you can get any better do it, if not, sell away.

Get Ready to Sell URS

URS has bounced off nicely from the level I recommended to buy at (200 sma: 51.50) and is currently trading at 55.82. Although I think this stock could still have more to go, I would take start to take some off now. A downward sloping 50 sma is right above here and could provide some formidable resistance. It seems very likely that the stock will hit that level and bounce off to come back down to the 200 sma before trending higher again.

TRLG Soon to be a Short

As you can see in the chart above. Any recent rallies in TRLG have all ended in tops right around the 22-24 range. I suspect the current run in TRLG will do the same and thus am recommending shorting TRLG in the near future. Since it is only at 21ish right now, it still has to get up to the target level. But once it does, watch for any weak action, quick turnarounds, or big red candlesticks. I will keep you posted on this stock in future posts.

Don't Give Up on SIRF Yet

If you got into SIRF, don't stop out yet. Although it may appear to just be hanging on by a thread, it still has not brokendown yet. It's still above the buy point and has not given up the 200 sma. However, if things get weak and action gets nasty, don't hesitate to get out.

Get in MKL; AUXL's Moving Higher

MKL has been choppy but I think now is the time to get on in if you haven't already. It looks like it could have a quick 5% upside here to its 50 sma and possibly more.

AUXL is moving higher once again as I predicted. I would now look to start taking gains off the table in the stock, as it is starting to look a bit overextended. Anything above 30.50 looks ripe to start taking some off.

RATE Close to a Short

RATE is in a pretty clear consolidation pattern that has the stock ranging from around 35 to 52. Now that it is nearing the top of this range, I believe it is a good potential short. I would look to short right up at 52 and cover if it gets about 2/3 percent above.

SYMC Close to Support

SYMC has been beaten down for the past 3 years or so. Now after a bounce which started in mid '06, is now coming back down to a solid support level. I would look to buy the stock right at 15 bucks and stop out about 2/3 percent below.

Get Ready for ASML

ASML's channeling in and off of its 200 sma. In all instances in the last year, it has bounced off this level cleanly giving traders only one glimpse to get in. I would keep a sharp eye on this stock. Stop out a percent or two below.

Buy WMI at Support; Short if Breaks Down

Although WMI is looking a bit toppy, I still think it has a good bounce left in it before it might bite the dust. Look at the chart. You can see that recently it has found good support at 32 and has come off strong each time for a good sized gain. I would look to get long the stock at this support level and stop out and possibly short if it becomes weak and goes a few percent or so below.

HOLX Breakout Looks Solid

I pointed out previously on here that HOLX was in a consolidation pattern and a breakout/breakdown was imminent. Well the breakout has now occurred and HOLX looks to be going higher. You should already be in the stock if you were paying attention, but if not I would go ahead and purchase a smaller position here and stop out below 65.

Sell Rest of NMX above 130

NMX is above 130 this morning providing a good place to sell any more shares of the stock you have left. Now that we're up two days in a row, it's likely we'll run out of steam tomorrow and you will probably give back any gains you made today. It's best to lock in the gains here.

TMO at 200 sma is a Buy

TMO is slowly but surely making its way down to its 200 sma, a support level that it will most likely bounce right off of and continue running higher. It will probably take another week or so to get down to this level, but once it does you need make sure you pull the trigger and buy. Medical device stocks have not given in to the broad market selling nearly as much as the other sectors and will rally strongly once we get oversold. If it breaks its 200 sma, stop out two or three percent below.

SCMR Looks Ready to Run

I previously recommended buying SCMR in the vicinity of 3.65. It has been trading around 3.68 over the past few days, a level that I think is worth going ahead and buying at. It is rallying late this afternoon, up now to 3.77, so you might be forced to wait a bit if you have not already gotten in the stock. If it does not pullback you might just have to bite the bullet and get in now because this stock could definately have some good upside coming.

Start Covering ALU into Weakness

ALU is down a little over 5% from where I recommended shorting it. I would now look to start covering this short beginning here at 7.42 and more into any further weakness.

Get Ready to Buy AUXL and AGN

I would go ahead and buy AUXL right here as it sits on its middle bollinger band. It has been in a steady upward trend that could easily continue from here. However, if it 27.50 or so, I'd stop out.

AGN looks to be coming down to its 200 sma which should provide a great entry point into this stock. As you can see in the chart, AGN has found support near or at its 200 sma plenty of times in the near past and is likely to do so again this time. I'd look to get in right around the moving average and give it a little cushion (3-4% below) to recover before stopping out.

Buy SIRF on 200 sma

SIRF has been consolidating after reporting strong earnings and is now bouncing off of its 200 sma. I would look to buy this stock a little bit above support and stop out if it goes beneathe the moving average by a percent or two.

Buy VCLK on Trendline

VCLK has a 3 year trendline that can be clearly seen in the chart above. I'd look to buy on the trendline around 20.50 and give the stock down to 19.90 to recover before stopping out. Of course, these entry/exit points are a bit flexible as the stock gets closer to the buy point, so use your best judgement.

GENZ Possible Breakout Coming

As you can see in the chart posted above, GENZ is in a consolidation pattern and looks posied to breakout. Because of the uncertainty in the market right now though, I would only put a small position on in this stock unless it breaks on decisive volume. If the uptrend does continue, the small position can always be added to. If the uptrend does not materialize and the stock falters, stop out below the 50 sma.

Start Selling NMX

NMX has been moving up over the past weeks despite the turmoil in the broad markets. Now though, it is nearing resistance levels meaning that its time to start selling your position. As some background, I recommended buying this stock around 121 and down to 118 because the stock seemed to be in a channel and was likely to move up. This proved to be true, as the stock is currently right around 129 bucks, making this position a very successful trade. I'd take a bit off here before the weekend and look to take the rest off next week into strength.

Cover DIVX

DIVX presented one of the best opportunities for a quick short that I've seen in a while. After watching it sit on its 50 sma, I recommended shorting it right when it broke down below the moving average. Well, yesterday it did break below and today it continued downward once again. Now that it is down a little over a buck since the entry point, I think you should cover your short at around 14.30 and take the gain. A quick 7% gain in this whippy market should be taken off the table as quickly as possible.

ALU Shortable

ALU looks shortable here. Rallies in this stock have been sold off quickly in past months and the pattern looks like it is occurring once again. The stock has now broken below its middle bollinger making it more likely that the stock will continue to move lower from here. I would to go short near this level. Stop out about 2 or 3 percent above here.

HOLX in Consolidation, Be Ready for a Break

HOLX is in consolidation after a strong upward move. Support and resistance levels within the consolidation pattern are pretty clear. Watch for a breakout or breakdown before you take a position. However when the move does happen, hop on its quickly and stop out below/above the breakout/breakdown.

Get Ready to Buy SCMR

SCMR is coming to strong support at 3.65. I would look to buy the stock right around that level and stop out below 3.59. 6 cents of risk, a ton of upside.

Buy URS off 200 sma

URS is coming right to support on its 200 sma. I'd look to buy right here, right off the moving average. Stop out a percent or two below the moving average.

Volatility Reigns; DIVX

After erasing a huge gain, we're now sitting down 37 points on the DJIA. As I said in a previous post, we were looking for the market to hold its early morning gains. Now that it hasn't I think the market is in a mess. Citi's down 7 percent and counting and WB and BAC are right down there with it.


DIVX is holding up on its 50 sma currently. If it breaks below however it's definately an opportunity. Therefore I would look to short DIVX once it breaks its 50 sma and look for it to head lower.

MSTR is a Buy; MKL Near Support

MSTR looks like it could continue to move higher. Even in the face of yesterday's action, it has remained strong and exhibited very strong price action. If you look at the chart you can see a bit of a triangle that the stock is now breaking out of. If it continues that breakout it could very well have up to around 112. I would be a buyer right here right now at 103.77 and stop out if it heads below 100.

MKL is coming down to support. It's simply a good play off of a technical level. I'd look to buy at 460 stop out below 452.

Whipsawed

Well, it looks like those losses yesterday might be made up today. Just when everyone thought the market was looking to head lower, we get more fed action and a huge spike. All of the momentum names such as GOOG, AAPL, MA have already reinflated prior to the opening bell. If today closes strong then we're probably looking at heading back up to the previous highs on this action. If we can't hold the gains though, we're in pretty big trouble.

Sell CBRL; Check Out UNG

Even though CBRL did come off of its support as I predicted, I would now look to sell the stock now around 34.65 for a quick gain of 2 dollars. The changing market sentiment has made it so that you must lock in gains on most long positions now.

One long position that you could take however is UNG. This is the ETF that tracks the price of natural gas much like the ETF with ticker USO tracks the price of oil.

As you can see from the chart, UNG has steadily declined since it became a trading vehicle. However, it is now near a support level that I think you can buy it at. What also makes UNG attractive right now is that it is largely uncorrelated with the stock market. So it makes a good addition to a portfolio that's burdened with exposure to the now waning equity market.

I would look to buy UNG right around 34ish or wherever it finds support down here and stop out below 32.75.

No Headfakes: Just Straight Pain for Longs

After the fed rate decision today there were no headfakes like last time. Instead there was only a huge drop that carried on strongly into the close. I do not think this is a one day event. Bulls were majorly disappointed by the fed's actions and the glim outlook surrounding financials is once again coloring market participants' outlooks. Think about how the market has bounced recently. All of that was based on Bernake and Kohn's dovish remarks and the fact that we had a fed that was supposedly "watching our backs".

Not any more. As I pointed to in a recent post, the S&P could be looking at a head and shoulders pattern if this market decline sticks. That could mean a huge decline from here. With financials in constant turmoil, a fed that can't appease markets, and a technical pattern that looks increasingly more negative, I think the short side is the best place to be right now.

I don't argue with big red candlesticks and negative action like todays. However, I do think a decline will eventually present an opportunity to get long financials and ride them out from their current distressed states.

Until then, play defense and short opportunistically.

Cover CELG Down 8

CELG's getting killed this morning and is currently down 8.52 to 48.84. At this point, we have tremendous gains after going short once support broke down at the 200 sma and I would now recommend covering that position.

Preferreds Offer Attractive Yields

This blog is almost exclusively focused on trading based on technical patterns. However, occasionally I do look elsewhere for profits. Fore example, right now I believe there is tremendous opportunity in the preferred market.

Financial companies have been beaten down as everyone who has even glimpsed at CNBC knows. What you may not have heard is that companies such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bank of America, CIT Group and others have been recently issuing preferred stock to raise capital. The whole "everything financial related is going to zero" mess has made it so that these preferreds and all fixed income instruments issued by these companies have had to offer high yields, priced way off benchmark treasuries in order to entice investors.

Most of the companies I mentioned have outstanding preferred yielding around 7.25% whether by way of a coupon or by discount and coupon. Of course if you wanted to venture into Countrywide preferred you could get a few percentage points more in accordance with the additional risk you would face.

As far as credit ratings, all are generally highly rated investment grade securities. Remember, for these securities to not pay out, the companies mentioned would have to fully cut their common stock dividend which is not likely to happen.

Overall, preferreds are a terrific way to play the financial meltdown. With things looking a bit more positive in recent weeks, the record spread betwee treasuries and preferreds now looks to be overdone. The fat yields, in combination with the prospect of price appreciation as financials improve makes this "trade" a great way to profit.

Possible Head and Shoulders in S&P

If the S&P completes its head and shoulders pattern, things could get very ugly. As you can see on the chart, the S&P looks to be moving back up to 1550. However, if it fails once we get to that level, it will be worth getting short for the ride back down to support and in anticipation of breaking the neckline. If the head and shoulders pattern becomes reality, you're looking at 1250 on the S&P in the not so distant future.

CBRL is a Buy

CBRL is trading right near support at 33-32 dollars. This level has held quite a few times before and I suspect it will hold once again this time. I would look to buy into this stock as close to 32 as you can and stop out below 31.25.