Monday, November 26, 2007
The Breakdown in WBC Occurs
It looks like WBC has broken down. Today's long solid red candlestick makes more negative action likely. I would be shorting today around 47 or better and look for the stock to get down to 44 before covering. Stop out above 48.
Book Gains in AUXL
AUXL has prevailed throughout the market turmoil. It continues to bounce off its middle bollinger and move higher. However the action today makes me a bit wary of holding the stock too much longer. Thus, I am looking to sell the stock at around 27 (you could've today) for a gain of a buck in a short period.
Troublesome Action in CELG
Today's action in CELG was concerning. CELG has been a consistently strong stock for a while now and big red candlesticks are a bit out of the ordinary. The stock has now broken to the level where I previously suggested stopping out at. I would make sure you do so as it seems to be trapped in negative sentiment. In addition to stopping out, I would now look to go short around these levels. The support that once kept this stock moving upward has now broken and there could be some downside to go.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Wait for Breakout or Breakdown in WBC
WBC, a recent Buffet purchase, is consolidating from around 47-52. There is clearly a downward sloping resistance line on top of the consolidation pattern leading it to look very triangular. My approach to triangles is to wait for entry until a decision has been made. That is, until it breaks out or breaks down. Once the stock has made the decisive move, you can then hop in and catch most of the move. Whereas, if you guess which way the stock will move right here, you are at great risk of being wrong and losing money.
The breakout/breakdown will come. Just be patient and wait for it. Once it comes buy it or short it and place a stop below or above the breakout/breakdown point.
FCX
We're clearly in a tough market here where the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, there are still stocks in select places that are very strong and coming to a point where you can buy them.
FCX shedded nearly 8 points off yesterday and is looking like it will come down further. I would look to buy the stock off the 200 sma which has provided support previously. If it drops a percent or so below, stop out.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Is AIG Really All That Bad?
Is AIG really that bad? I don't think so. Sure, the chart has gotten pretty bad recently especially for such a stalwart large capper. But, 49 is pretty strong support as the chart shows. When it gets to that level, I think it'll be worth wading in. If things do get worse, then the stop loss placed a few percent below comes into play. That way, we'll limit the risk to downside in the trade.
AUXL Stays Steady During Tough Market
AUXL's middle bollinger has consistently provided support for the stock and is continuing to do so. I would buy it right here, right now around 26 dollars and look to hold it, based on the stocks action in coming days/weeks, up until 27.50 or so. Your stop loss should be placed a percent or two below the middle bollinger, a do or die level.
Friday, November 16, 2007
SNDK and MOT Coming Down to Support
SNDK's stock has shed 20 dollars per share over the past 6 months and is now finally making its way to support. As you can see from the chart, SNDK has support slightly below 36 dollars. It is at this point that I would look to initiate a position. However, If a bounce doesn't occur and the stock flounders, you can stop out a couple percent below.
MOT, a Carl Icahn stock that has acted miserably for as long as I can remember, is coming down to long term support at around 14.50. The stock is currently at 16.44, so it does have some value to shed still but once it gets to support, the stock will be a buy. Again, i'd recommend placing a stop loss below support in order to contain any losses.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
DAKT Crushed; Any Strength Should Be Shorted
I'm currently watching DAKT flutter around helplessly at around 21.40. The stock is down 25 percent already and is struggling to gain any traction. I think investors in this stock are fed up with being disappointed report after report. I would look to short this stock down. It has nothing going for it. If it moves against us, I would look to stop out a bit above here.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
STX is Weak
As the chart shows, STX has fallen victim to some pretty heavy selling lately along with the other mid/big cap tech names. However, unlike the other stocks, STX was unable to make a stand in today's strong market. I pointed to this stock a few weeks ago as having strong resistance around 29 and I believe that this selling pressure shows this to be true.
I would remain short STX even if we get a bounce here. It's just acting too miserably to cover.
NMX is a Buy
NMX is coming down to support. Because of this, it now looks to be a good time to buy the stock.
If you look at the chart it is pretty clear that support is around 121-117, a level the stock has bounced off of many times before. After every bounce, as you can see, the stock has consistently moved back up to 135. Because this action has been so predictable, I would look for it to occur again.
Start to scale in right here around 121 and look to buy if it comes down.
Get Long CELG
CELG has reached the cover point and looks to be coming off of its lows strongly. I would get long here with a stop below the 200 sma.
Cover ADI
ADI has made a big enough move downwards now that you should look at covering your full position. I originally recommended shorting after ADI broke down out of a large triangle at 35. It is now at 32 bucks and right at a previous level of congestion that could provide support. It's better to cover here and move on to the next trade.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Bucking the Trend in TRLG
Friday, November 9, 2007
Get Ready to Cover CELG; GE Looks Ok
CELG is nearing the point where you should look to cover your short and go long the stock. The 200 sma is rapidly approaching (60.90) from 62.89, the current price. Go long off the 200 sma, you should get a decent bounce. If not stop out and go short once again below the 200.
GE found support on its 200 sma yesterday and has bounced off. Although getting long any stock is not necessarily the most attractive thing right now, I think GE is worth a shot here. It has consistently come off its 200 sma and risen higher. Get long at 37.60 and stop out about 2 percent lower.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Old School Tech is Hurting
Old School Tech stands out as being one of the hardest hit sectors in today's trading. Cisco's failure to meet Wall Street expectations has brought down Intel, Microsoft, Google among others.
This could be a signal that expectations for this group are too high and the momentum is starting to deflate. I would not be looking to get long these names right here. Big red candlesticks should not be fought in this manner. No one is going to be ready to stick their necks out in the near term. There is just too much headline risk and broad market selling.
Just Another High Flyer Coming Down to Reality
Down 30 percent and counting. HANS is getting hit strongly. This mo-mo stock is just the latest one to disappoint investors. RVBD, LVS, CROX have all done this before HANS and are all way down from even their first drop. I would look to short this stock right here starting at 40 bucks and layer more if it moves any more to the upside. Any strength in the stock right now is false strength and will very likely give way to a weaker stock price in coming days.
Earnings Revive TRLG
Excitement over TRLG's positive earnings announcement this morning pushed the stock nearly 15% higher. Retail is a depressed sector right now, as many of the large stocks have fallen victim to negative sentiment leading many stocks to get hit hard.
Now that TRLG has proved itself to not be trapped in retail's circle of negativity, it might be time to look for a trade. The stock is currently being sold off a bit with the rest of the market. However, unlike the rest of the market, I think the news from its earnings report will carry over into the coming days if not the coming weeks.
My advice would be to scale in right here. Starting around 17.40, I would add some now and look to add if it moves lower. Three negative days in a row for the broad markets will likely reverse tomorrow and with that TRLG should continue to fly. Strong resistance is up near 22 dollars. I believe it will eventually make its way up to that level.
Monday, November 5, 2007
CROX Sees More Downside, CELG too
CROX, as I said a few days ago, saw plenty of more downside. The stock is currently trading at 44.20 down about 11 bucks from where I recommended shorting it. I would now recommend covering this trade right now and booking gains. 20% in a few days is no joke!
CELG as I have pointed out many times has a date with its 200 sma. It continues to come down after disappointing the street when it reported earnings. The 200 sma has served as support many times before and will probably do so once again. I would cover once it reaches that level.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Select Stocks Perform Well Admist Down Day
INTC, MA, and MSFT all of which reported better than expected earnings are holding up very well this morning admist a 200+ point drop in the DJIA. Price action like this means something!
I would expect these stocks to continue to outperform the market in the next couple weeks just as they are today. That means buy them, or buy them and short the market.
I would expect these stocks to continue to outperform the market in the next couple weeks just as they are today. That means buy them, or buy them and short the market.
CROX Likely to Be Down Tomorrow as Well
As a short term trade, I would look to short any pop up in CROX this morning or afternoon. Even though this stock has dropped 26 % i still believe a multi day move downward will happen. In other words, short the stock opportunistically. It is currently right around 55 with a high of 55.86. I would start a position around this level and look to short more if it goes higher. Or if you are an options trader, it might be better to buy puts.
CM
CM
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